How the figures are reached
A plain account of what the software calculates, what the AI writes, and what neither can know.
Two kinds of evidence
Active comparables are homes for sale today. Their prices are asking prices: what sellers hope for. They show the competition a buyer sees and set the ceiling of credible pricing.
Sold comparables are homes withdrawn from the market as sold, taken from Casafari. Portugal does not publish individual sale prices, so the evidence is the last known asking price before the sale, its date and the time it spent on the market. The report never presents a last asking price as a sale price.
From last asking price to estimated sale price
Homes usually sell below their last asking price. By default the method assumes an average discount of 5.5%, then adjusts it for how long each home was on the market:
| Days on the market | Typical discount to last asking |
|---|---|
| Up to 120 days | 2–4% |
| 120–300 days | 4–6% |
| 300–450 days | 6–8% |
| 450–900 days | 8–11% |
| More than 900 days | 11–15% |
Homes marketed on and off for years, or by many agencies, are treated with extra caution. The result is labelled an estimated achieved price.
Bringing older sales to today
A sale from 2023 says little about 2026 prices until it is adjusted for the market since. Each estimated sale price is indexed with INE's official statistics — the median price per m² of dwellings sold (Estatísticas de preços da habitação ao nível local):
- Municipal series where INE publishes quarterly data for the municipality, using the average of each year's four quarters to smooth out small samples;
- otherwise the regional series (NUTS III, then NUTS II), fourth quarter on fourth quarter;
- part-years are applied pro rata. The series used is named in the report.
What the software calculates and what the AI writes
Every €/m² figure, estimated and indexed sale price, and the €/m² chart are computed by the software from your data. The AI — Anthropic's Claude — reads your inputs, the comparables, the photographs and current market research, then proposes the pricing tiers and writes the commentary in the language you choose. You check its figures and wording on the review screen before anything is sent.
- Three price tiers — conservative, recommended guide, ambitious;
- Assessed market value — the range the evidence supports today;
- Expected sale range — after normal negotiation;
- Confidence — low, medium or high, with the reasons;
- Time on market at the guide and at the ambitious price.
Market context
For each report the AI searches for current market data — INE releases, portal price reports and published market research — and cites each figure with its source and date. These figures are indicative and come from public sources that Valuation Studio does not verify independently.
Limitations
- The report is an estate agent's market appraisal, not a formal valuation for lending, tax, legal or accounting purposes.
- It is only as good as its comparables. Too few, or poorly matched, lower its reliability — and its stated confidence.
- Areas, registration and licensing are taken as advised and must be verified against the official documents.
- AI can misread or misstate. Nothing should reach a client without the agent's review.
- Markets move. Figures are correct to the best of our knowledge on the date of assessment.